Por Gerardo Gamarra*
Sao Paulo, 21 de octubre de 2018
Los resultados de la primera vuelta en las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil terminaron de conformar un escenario político que pone en juego dos proyectos políticos antagónicos, que ya se evidenciaron con tal carácter y que se torna un elemento clave para pensar el futuro de la región en el marco internacional. La posibilidad de que un candidato que reivindica políticas y discursos de claro corte fascista llegue al gobierno se convierte en una realidad que toda la clase trabajadora en el país tiene que enfrentar y trabajar para revertirla.
Podemos tomar en cuenta las discusiones alrededor de la debilidad del sistema democrático republicano burgués, frente a las nuevas demandas del modo de acumulación capitalista en su fase más depredatoria. La forma en que en sus pocas pero complejas variables se expresa, nos permite entender que al capital internacional la democracia tal como la conocemos, ya no le sirve. Esta es quizás una simplificación que nos ayuda a entender en dimensión global lo que sucede en diferentes partes del mundo y que, o bien por omisión no lo vemos en el noticiero, o bien por intención se cuela día a día atomizado, inconexo en noticias sueltas.
Es entonces cuando se abre el camino ancho que deja ver que hay tanto más en juego que un periodo presidencial en un sistema que aun en crisis, durante los años del neodesarollismo, identificado con el periodo Lula-Dilma (2003-2016), supo ser y abrirse a discutir que la democracia era más que lo que ya estaba dado, que podía ser un poco más democrática y construir la participación de los sectores más desplazados en la vida social y política del país. Lo que está en juego en esta elección de segunda vuelta en Brasil es la democracia como la conocemos hasta hoy. Esos espacios de participación que la lucha abrió, los que se fueron construyendo experiencia con experiencia, se los cargó el golpe en 2016. Ahora es que van por todo. Y en la resistencia a ese golpe se construyó un amplio espacio de unidad política y social que hoy crece y se aglutina contra el fascismo.
Tras la primera vuelta
Lo inmediato fue asumir la diferencia. Los resultados de la primera vuelta pautaron el ballotage del día 28 de octubre entre Fernando Haddad y Jair Bolsonaro con una ventaja de este último que colocó un desafío inmediato, el resultado final se va a pelear voto a voto. Esto es algo no menor si pensamos que la campaña de Bolsonaro fue construida íntegramente en las redes sociales, un terreno que protagoniza un fenómeno con un dinamismo incansable que abre un flanco más para “ir” a discutir, a militar, a contagiar al pueblo de un proyecto que los incluya, que los haga parte.
Pero cuáles son los escenarios posibles después de la segunda vuelta? Qué desafíos enfrentaría un gobierno progresista impulsado por la coalición PT-PCdoB? Y si gana Bolsonaro, qué podemos esperar de un gobierno que consolidaría la agenda del golpe y profundizaría la agenda internacional que pretende a la región apenas como un reservorio de recursos prestos a ser renta del capital internacional?
Cuando miramos al mapa que expresa como fueron los votos hacia cada candidato, podemos percibir con claridad qué sectores son los beneficiados con una eventual victoria de Bolsonaro.La imagen muestra en verde los votos de Bolsonaro, que coincidentemente se concentran a lo largo de toda la región donde se concentra el agronegocio. Y el sudeste del país, junto con los ejes Minas-Sao Paulo-Río que concentran un alto caudal electoral con sectores medios donde el voto “anti-PT” tiene fuerte expresión.
La conformación del poder ejecutivo traslada ese mapa a las cámaras del Congreso. Cierto es que más allá de quien gane la segunda vuelta, la conformación del senado y de la cámara de diputados se afirma en los bloques conservadores representados por la bancada ruralista, la presencia de la iglesia evangélica y la bancada militar que fue la de mayor crecimiento en la nueva conformación del senado brasilero. Las tres B por su connotación “Biblia, Buey y Bala”. En la cámara de diputados el Partido Social Liberal (PSL) de Bolsonaro pasó a ser la segunda fuerza detrás del PT incorporando 44 diputados a los ocho que ya tenían banca, mientras que el Partido de los Trabajadores cayó de 61 a 56 diputados. Mientras, el PSDB y el MDB perdieron en suma 38 bancas.
En el senado se incorporaron cinco partidos a la representación parlamentaria, y si bien el MDB mantiene la mayoría, también perdió bancas para el próximo periodo. En esta cámara, el PT perdió la mitad de sus representantes entre las que se cuenta la derrota de la candidatura de Dilma Rouseff por Minas Gerais.
Dos programas, dos proyectos
Con estos elementos, la candidatura de Bolsonaro, ex capitán del ejército, junto con su candidato a vice Hamilton Mourão, general retirado y masón, con el apoyo de los sectores más conservadores de la sociedad y con control político del congreso, se convierte en la posibilidad concreta para que los militares accedan al poder desde la restauración democrática, y esta vez por la vía electoral, y con el objetivo de desmontar el Estado a su expresión mínima, de privatizar y ajustar en pos de un beneficio ajeno a cada brasilero, a cada brasilera.
Por otro lado, la posibilidad de la coalición PT-PCdoB, con la candidatura de Fernando Haddad y Manuela D’Avila, de recuperar por la decisión popular el camino democrático de una nación, presenta la disputa por un proyecto que busca recuperar lo que el golpe se llevó y avanzar en propuestas que involucren al conjunto de la sociedad, que garantice derechos históricos, laborales, de salud, de educación. Un proyecto de nación soberana.
Cuando decimos que se pone en juego la democracia, que el avance del fascismo con la figura de Bolsonaro representa el peor resultado de una crisis política social y económica que resquebraja intencionalmente el vínculo de la sociedad y la vida política, y que dio lugar a crear nuevos actores; personas “no políticas”, gestores, gente común (en Argentina ya pasamos por ese camino y se vinieron peores “tormentas”), también es importante pensar que ese vacío narrativo tiene una intención. Bolsonaro no va a los debates, además de por sus pocas virtudes oratorias, porque hablar de su programa de gobierno es spoilear una tragedia anunciada.
Las principales pautas del programa de la coalición “O Brasil Feliz de Novo” (PT-PCdoB) reúnen compromisos alrededor del objetivo de tomar medidas de corto plazo que permitan recuperar derechos desmontados por el golpe y dar un rápido combate a la crisis de empleo. Poner a consulta popular el revoque de las principales medidas golpistas como la enmienda constitucional que limita el gasto público por veinte años, o la reforma laboral que impactó directamente en la condiciones de trabajo y salariales del pueblo.
El programa de Haddad plantea generar empleo a partir de retomar la obra pública, reactivando las más de 2500 obras paradas en el país; y retomando programas de bienestar y desarrollo social como el plan de vivienda “Minha Casa, Minha Vida”, además de generar líneas de crédito de bajo interés. El programa de gobierno de Haddad y D’Avila plantea generar inclusión social a través de un estado soberano, garantizando educación y salud pública con programas que extiendan los logros alcanzados en experiencias como el programa de becas “ProUni” en la educación superior; o incluso alcanzar objetivos de tecnificación del sistema público de salud.
Por su parte, Bolsonaro construye una agenda de gobierno dispuesta a beneficiar los intereses de la elite militar, rural y evangélica de Brasil; y claro alinearse con las políticas internacionales en un reordenamiento geopolítico que comandado por EEUU propone políticas a contramano de los procesos de integración regional de los últimos años. Un eventual gobierno de Bolsonaro consolidaría las medidas de ajuste que empezaron con el golpe. Propuestas como eliminar 13 ministerios solo pueden venir de alguien que votó a favor de reducir el gasto público en educación y salud y de la reforma laboral. Las políticas económicas, a cargo de Paulo Guedes (PSL), apuntan a reducir y privatizar el Estado a su expresión mínima. Así, empresas como Petrobras, o el propio Banco de Brasil entran en la fila de una reducción masiva que apunta a repartir en manos privadas los recursos y bienes del pueblo brasilero.
La campaña como resistencia al fascismo
Una hora después de saber los resultados definitivos de la primera vuelta, la campaña estaba de nuevo en la calle. Los sectores populares en un clima de todo o nada a la búsqueda de cada voto, de discutir con toda la población lo que se pone en juego, lo que se propone. Un amplio sector de la sociedad no está dispuesto a ser gobernado por el fascismo, y quiere sus derechos garantizados por un Estado que incluya a hombres, mujeres, jóvenes, negros, lgbt, y un estado soberano de sus riquezas.
En frente hay un candidato construido en las redes sociales, que difícilmente haya dejado una propuesta clara de gobierno más allá de su intención de liberar el uso de armas y ametrallar al PT. Que no fue a los debates y que construye su campaña por redes sociales con una enorme red de fakenews que llega a millones.Tecnología de campaña que como se supo a través del diario Folha de Sao Paulo, es bancada ilegalmente por empresarios que apoyan a Bolsonaro y compran sistemas de datos y de envíos masivos en un negociado de corrupción que llega a los R$ 12 millones. Delito electoral sobre el que el Tribunal Superior Electoral (TSE), con Rosa Weber como Ministra, emitió un comunicado donde desestimaba avanzar en cualquier acción que “genere problemas al proceso electoral”. Aunque también afirmaron que se podría avanzar en una investigación posteriormente.
El nazismo usó la radio como dispositivo de propaganda en tiempos donde esta era la vía masiva de llegada a la población, la aguja hipodérmica esparciendo veneno. En tiempos donde las redes sociales se convierten en el camino más inmediato, a la distancia de un bolsillo de cualquier persona, y donde los datos personales se han consolidado como la mercancía de la economía financiera digital, se torna muy grave pensar las potenciales amenazas y los daños y delitos ya causados con el objetivo definir una elección con herramientas que actúan antes que el voto de cada persona.
Algo que dejan las crisis, que a veces cierran puertas pero abren ventanas es, para la organización popular, una posibilidad de aglutinar esa unidad necesaria y construir la resistencia política. Las movilizaciones masivas contra el fascismo vienen siendo ese espacio en tiempo de elecciones. Las campañas partidarias, la acción en medios masivos, ahora el espacio de las redes como un lugar de disputa que se conoce y se renueva momento a momento y que pone un desafío de cara al futuro de la política y la democracia, también encuentran nuevamente en la movilización masiva, en las calles, su lugar necesario y natural que también está en disputa. Un marco de unidad necesario con el pueblo en la calle defendiendo la democracia ante un enemigo histórico.
Dos actos multitudinarios, impulsados por las mujeres de Brasil, que sienten en el cuerpo la amenaza constante de ser gobernadas por alguien que defiende la violación y la tortura, y que mantienen fuerte y viva la lucha por un país soberano y democrático, convocaron cientos de miles en las calles de todo Brasil y en muchas partes del mundo también coincidiendo con la pauta anti-fascista.
La movilización del día 29 de septiembre, una semana antes del primer turno, demostró la unidad de las fuerzas políticas y de todos los sectores de la sociedad que no están dispuestos a vivir en una sociedad que priorice las armas a los libros, que no quiere convivir con el odio y la violencia. Tras la primera vuelta, se registraron por lo menos 50 ataques en la calle relacionados con activistas de Bolsonaro. Las victimas en su mayoría son mujeres, LGBT’s y afrodescendientes. Un caso fatal fue el asesinato de Moa do Katendê, un histórico maestro de capoeira de Bahía (Salvador), que fue apuñalado en una discusión donde había manifestado su voto al PT. A una semana de la votación en segundo turno y tras los hechos de violencia y divulgación de mentiras y hechos de corrupción en torno a la campaña Bolsonaro, este último sábado 20, todo el país volvió a movilizarse en una pauta definitiva, #EleNão #HaddadSim.
La respuesta internacional, el estado de consternación general de grandes figuras y organizaciones políticas y de derechos humanos en el mundo muestran que el fenómeno de re ascenso de las derechas más radicales cobra peso en el continente. La repercusión de la prensa internacional e incluso reconocidas figuras de la cultura popular que se manifestaron contra el fascismo en el marco de la campaña #EleNão también expresan como la unidad se genera en torno de valores que conocemos como civilizatorios. Porque enfrente esta la barbarie.
Las encuestas camino al 28 de octubre muestran una eventual victoria de Bolsonaro, con una diferencia que pesquisa tras pesquisa ha ido reduciéndose. Sectores de la izquierda y centro ya confirmaron su apoyo a Fernando Haddad, como también Bolsonaro cosechó sus apoyos ya bien conocidos. A una semana cada voto y cada posible voto al candidato de ultraderecha puede ser discutido, porque del lado de la democracia hay un programa, un proyecto y voluntad de construirlo con el pueblo, del otro lado hay silencio y fakenews.
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[*] Militante de Patria Grande y ALBA Movimientos, contacto: gerardogamarra7@gmail.com
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